Scottish Premiership: An Unpredictable Title Race Ahead

In the previous five seasons, Scottish Premiership champions, specifically Celtic on four occasions and Rangers once, have averaged a remarkable points total of 96 en route to securing the title.

However, this trend appears set to change in the current season, contributing to one of the most captivating top-flight campaigns in Scotland’s recent history.

With a crucial Sunday ahead in the title race and only 15 rounds of fixtures remaining post-weekend, we delve into the statistical implications of this gripping three-way contest using the BBC Scotland calculator.

At present, leaders Heart of Midlothian are projected to finish the season with a total of 86 points based on their current points-per-game average. This anticipated total is lower than any of the champions from the last five seasons and 10 points shy of the historical average of 96.

Derek McInnes’ team is currently averaging 2.27 points per game, which is also beneath the averages of the last seven winners, including Celtic’s title victory during the curtailed 2019-20 season and their triumph the year prior. This is not intended as a criticism; an 86-point total would typically place a team in contention for the title in most other European leagues.

Nonetheless, the standard in the Premiership has been set remarkably high in recent years. In the 2016-17 season, Brendan Rodgers’ Celtic achieved an unbeaten record, surpassing 100 points, a feat that Rangers replicated in the 2020-21 season under Steven Gerrard. In the four subsequent campaigns, Celtic has secured every title while amassing over 90 points each time.

It now seems unlikely that either of the Glasgow clubs will achieve such totals this season, especially when considering that they would need to win all 16 remaining matches to just surpass the 90-point mark.

A strong performance at Tynecastle this Sunday would provide a significant opportunity for Martin O’Neill’s Celtic to challenge this narrative, while it’s worth noting that Rangers are currently averaging 2.5 points per game under the management of Danny Rohl.

The question remains whether both clubs have left themselves with too much ground to cover after the disappointing tenures of Russell Martin and Wilfried Nancy. Many observers have expressed skepticism about whether Hearts can sustain their title-challenging form, but after 22 games, the data suggests they are indeed contenders.

As we familiarize ourselves with advanced metrics like expected goals (xG), the introduction of expected points data adds another layer of complexity. Our statistics provider, Opta, employs xG values accrued by teams in matches, both for and against, and simulates these matches 10,000 times to determine expected points based on the likelihood of winning, drawing, or losing.

Opta’s findings maintain the top five teams after 22 games but rearrange their standings: Celtic in first, Hibs in second, Hearts in third, Rangers in fourth, and Motherwell in fifth. According to this model, Celtic is slightly underperforming, while Hearts and Rangers are benefiting from an overperformance relative to their underlying metrics.

A deeper analysis reveals significant insights; Opta estimates Hearts are outperforming their expected points by an impressive 10, while Rangers are exceeding theirs by nearly six. This may lead some to speculate that both teams could falter as a currently underperforming Celtic strengthens its position. However, data doesn’t always dictate outcomes. If it did, Nancy would still be at the helm, as xG statistics reflected favorably on his management.

It is also challenging to quantify how these teams will handle the mental pressures as the season draws to a close, especially with potential injuries and January signings altering team dynamics.

Ultimately, the on-field action will capture the spotlight as we approach an extraordinary season’s climax over the next four months, a campaign so unpredictable that even statistical models may miss the mark.