City’s Struggles in Late Season Performance Raise Concerns

Manchester City’s ability to secure a series of victories in the latter half of the season has been pivotal to their success in clinching six of the last eight Premier League titles. Under Guardiola’s leadership, the team has consistently accumulated more points during the second half of the season in five of the last seven years. Notably, in 2022-23, when they did not maintain this trend, they relaxed after winning the title with three matches to spare.

Arsenal is acutely aware of City’s late-season prowess, as they were overtaken in the 2022-23 campaign when Guardiola’s squad won 12 consecutive matches, overcoming an eight-point deficit. In the ongoing 2023-24 season, City has once again displayed remarkable form, winning 16 out of 19 games and remaining unbeaten, amassing a total of 51 points.

Liverpool is also familiar with City’s legendary resurgence post-January. In the 2018-19 season, City was in third place at the halfway mark but incredibly secured 54 points from a possible 57, narrowly edging out Jurgen Klopp’s Reds to win the title by just one point. A similar scenario unfolded in the 2021-22 season, where City achieved 46 points in the second half, finishing atop the standings. In the latter half of the 2020-21 season, during their record-breaking cycle of four consecutive championships, they garnered 45 points.

“It’s true that our teams have always performed significantly better in the second part of the season than in the first, and we hope to replicate that this year,” remarked Bernardo Silva in December. However, the current squad does not seem to be following in the footsteps of their predecessors.

In 2026, City has accumulated only seven points from a possible 18, managing just one victory against Wolves, one of the league’s weaker teams. Concerns have been raised regarding their dismal second-half performances. The recent capitulation at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, where City has historically struggled, further underscored these issues. They have dropped nine points in the second halves of their six league matches this year, failing to score while conceding six times.

What must be frustrating for Guardiola is that his team has delivered some impressive first-half performances. They dominated against Chelsea but faltered after halftime, with Enzo Fernandez’s last-minute equalizer coming after sustained pressure from Chelsea. Similarly, they started strong against Tottenham, with Gary Neville comparing the atmosphere to “Soccer Aid” during his commentary for Sky Sports, describing it as “as flat as a pancake.”

However, when Tottenham emerged more determined in the second half, bolstered by Pape Matar Sarr’s introduction to strengthen their midfield, City struggled to cope. Guardiola’s delayed response, making his first substitution only in the 69th minute due to an injury rather than tactical necessity, further highlighted the issues. Although he brought in Nico Gonzalez to add strength to the midfield, it was Spurs who finished stronger, almost clinching victory if not for two outstanding saves by Gianluigi Donnarumma denying Wilson Odobert and Xavi Simons.

Neville noted, “They lack that killer instinct. They struggle under pressure from high pressing and balls into the box. They do not withstand that pressure, and their center-backs are not dominant. They allow teams to come back into games, which will pose a significant problem.”

Ex-Tottenham midfielder Danny Murphy commented on the BBC, stating, “City lost all momentum and control. It’s not that Spurs suddenly outclassed them; it’s that Tottenham simply wanted it more in the second half. This is troubling for Guardiola, especially with his team trying to apply pressure on the leaders, Arsenal.”

In the first half, City played like a team determined to catch Arsenal, yet their decline in the second half appeared self-inflicted through poor ball retention and failure to win challenges. This is atypical, as they are usually adept at managing games effectively.

Guardiola remained optimistic after the match, dismissing speculation that his side is falling out of the title race: “Are you suggesting we stop competing in the Premier League? There are 14 games left. As long as there is a chance, hope remains.”

Both City and Arsenal will vie for a spot in the Carabao Cup final before a crucial weekend in the title race. On Saturday, Arsenal will host a Sunderland side that has not won in their last seven away matches, which could leave City nine points behind by the time they play Liverpool on Sunday. City’s record at Anfield is even worse than at Tottenham, with only one victory in their last ten visits, that win coming during the empty 2020-21 season due to Covid-19.

Despite bolstering their squad with January signings Guehi and Antoine Semenyo, Arsenal appears to have the stronger lineup for the run-in. Although they may have lost Mikel Merino for an extended period and have concerns surrounding Bukayo Saka’s injury, they currently have three players sidelined compared to City’s six, which includes their three first-choice center-backs, Ruben Dias, John Stones, and Josko Gvardiol.

Neville added, “Arsenal can handle pressure, whereas this City team, particularly in midfield and defense, lacks the solid backbone needed to win a title. They are consistently underperforming, leading to a significant amount of introspection for City and Pep Guardiola. They appear to be falling short of expectations.”

While the season is far from over, the current stage is typically when City would be expected to hit their stride and embark on one of their famous winning streaks. Instead, they are experiencing the opposite, and based on recent evidence, Arsenal holds the advantage in the title race.