West Ham’s Fight for Survival: Analyzing Current Premier League Dynamics

omidbasir- West Ham’s recent form poses a concern for clubs positioned just above them in the Premier League standings.

The 40-point mark has historically been viewed as a safety net for Premier League teams, often allowing managers, players, and fans to breathe easier. However, this benchmark has not been essential for survival since the 2010-11 season, with few instances of teams being relegated while accumulating 40 points or more in previous decades.

Currently sitting in 18th place, West Ham is merely three points adrift of 17th-placed Nottingham Forest, a team that recently dismissed manager Sean Dyche following a goalless draw with Wolves. Tottenham Hotspur, who also parted ways with manager Thomas Frank on the same day, occupies the 16th position, two points ahead of Forest.

With 12 matches left in the season, historical trends indicate that West Ham possesses the capability to evade relegation. Under the guidance of manager Nuno Espirito Santo, who has experience keeping teams afloat from his tenure at Forest, the Hammers have garnered 24 points thus far, marking the highest total for an 18th-placed team at this juncture since the 2019-20 season, when they ultimately secured survival with 39 points.

West Ham has shown promising form lately, accruing 10 points from their last five games, including three victories. In contrast, Leeds appears to have gained momentum with recent wins against Fulham and Nottingham Forest, as well as draws against Everton and Chelsea.

Tottenham’s performance has been disappointing, managing only four points from their last 27 possible. Nottingham Forest, now without a manager, has won just two of their last ten matches, prompting concern among fans of Brighton and Crystal Palace as well. Brighton, currently in 14th place with 31 points, has suffered a poor run, winning only one game since November 30. Palace, positioned just above Brighton, has similarly struggled, claiming victory only once since December 7 and recently losing to Burnley after squandering a two-goal lead.

Had West Ham managed to secure victory against Manchester United on Tuesday, they would have equaled the record for the most points for an 18th-placed side at this stage of a 38-game season. As it stands, they find themselves slightly above the average for teams in their position but likely will need more than the 36 points typically sufficient for safety over the past nine seasons.

West Ham holds the unfortunate distinction of being relegated with the most points (42) in a 38-game season, a fate they faced in the dramatic conclusion of the 2002-03 campaign after drawing with Birmingham. That season, they managed to collect 22 points from their last 12 matches, which highlights their historical tendency to finish strong.

This marks the sixth instance in which West Ham has accumulated just 24 points at this stage of the season, and in half of those previous seasons, they successfully avoided relegation. They managed to secure at least 15 points from their last 12 matches in the seasons of 2006-07, 2019-20, and 2022-23. Only once in the past five years did they falter, amassing fewer than 15 points in their remaining matches during the 2010-11 season.

The current fixture list suggests a riveting conclusion to the season, with Nuno’s side set to host Leeds in their final match—a team that is currently six points ahead. If West Ham can maintain their recent resurgence, the pursuit of that elusive 40-point threshold may once again become crucial in their battle to remain in the Premier League.