Trends in Premier League Goal Scoring: A Shift Towards Set-Pieces

Wolves have recorded ten fewer goals from open play compared to the same stage last season.

One of the prominent narratives of the Premier League season thus far is the significant decrease in goals scored during open play, while there has been a noticeable uptick in goals resulting from set-pieces.

A comparison of the first 11 matches from this season to last reveals a decline of 39 goals scored in open play, coupled with an increase of 26 goals from set-pieces and penalties, resulting in an overall reduction of 13 goals.

Examining the broader context of shot attempts, there have been an astonishing 370 fewer shots taken in open play compared to this time last year.

Despite the marked increase in goals from set-pieces, the number of shots generated from these situations (excluding penalties) has only risen by two, indicating a high level of efficiency in scoring from dead-ball scenarios.

One manager noted, ‘I was seen as a dinosaur but not many managers moan about set-pieces now.’

With a total of 301 goals scored across 110 games this season, the average stands at 2.74 goals per game, a pace that, if maintained, would mark the lowest average in five years, since the 2020-21 season (2.69).

In stark contrast, the 196 goals scored from open play average 1.78 per game, poised to become the lowest average in 16 years, since the 2009-10 season (1.76).

The 2009-10 season is also notable for being the only time in Premier League history where non-penalty set-pieces were scored at a higher rate than this season’s current average of 0.77 per game (0.79).

Which teams are driving this shift in scoring methods this season?

Wolves have experienced the most significant downturn in open play goals, netting only four in 11 matches, which is ten fewer than at the same point last season.

Beyond Wolves, the decline in open play goals appears to be particularly pronounced among London teams, with five of the seven capital clubs recording at least five fewer goals from open play than last season. However, this trend can largely be attributed to their strong scoring performances at the start of last season rather than a genuine struggle to score this campaign.

In contrast, Manchester City has demonstrated the largest increase in open play goals, with nearly all of their 23 goals this season originating from such situations.

A comparison between the promoted teams and the relegated clubs they replaced shows that play-off winners Sunderland have outperformed Southampton, scoring three more goals in open play during their first 11 matches.

In terms of set-piece goals (excluding penalties), Arsenal and Chelsea have both seen significant increases, compensating for their respective declines in open play scoring.

Manchester United has doubled their set-piece goals compared to last season’s first 11 games prior to Ruben Amorim’s appointment, while Sunderland has similarly fared better than the previous red-and-white side they supplanted.

Interestingly, Manchester City appears to have diverged from this trend, scoring three fewer set-piece goals than last season, a situation mirrored by Nottingham Forest, which may reflect their attempts at changing their playing style.

A summary table detailing how each Premier League team has scored its goals this season, in comparison to their first 11 matches last season, is included below.

Six teams—Arsenal, Chelsea, Fulham, Newcastle, Tottenham, and West Ham—have emerged as leaders in this season’s trend, scoring fewer goals from open play while increasing their set-piece tally. Conversely, Manchester City is the only club bucking this trend by doing the opposite.

As the season progresses, it will be intriguing to observe whether teams continue to lean heavily on set-pieces or if they manage to revive their attacking creativity and increase their open play scoring.