Trends in Premier League Goal Scoring: A Shift Towards Set-Pieces

Wolves have netted 10 fewer goals from open play compared to the same stage last season.

One of the most notable narratives of the current Premier League season is the decline in goals scored from open play, alongside a rise in goals from set-pieces. A comparison to the first 11 matches of last season reveals a staggering 39 fewer goals scored in open play, contrasted with an increase of 26 goals from set-pieces and penalties. Overall, this results in a total of 13 fewer goals this season.

Examining the broader context, the number of shots taken by teams shows a remarkable decrease of 370 in open play compared to last season’s tally at this point.

Despite the noted increase in set-piece goals, the number of shots generated from these situations—excluding penalties—has only risen by two. This indicates that teams have been particularly effective in converting dead-ball opportunities into goals.

“I was seen as a dinosaur, but not many managers complain about set-pieces now,” reflects a veteran manager on the evolving dynamics of goal scoring.

To date, there have been 301 goals scored across 110 matches, averaging 2.74 goals per game. If this average persists throughout the season, it would mark the lowest goals-per-game ratio in five years, since the 2020-21 season (2.69). Conversely, open play goals have dwindled to just 196, averaging 1.78 per game, projecting towards the lowest rate in 16 years, since the 2009-10 season (1.76).

Notably, the 2009-10 season is also the only campaign where non-penalty set-pieces accounted for a higher frequency of goals than the current rate of 0.77 per game (0.79).

Which teams are driving this notable shift in goal scoring patterns this season? Wolves top the list with the most significant decline in open play goals, managing only four in their first 11 matches—10 fewer than at the same juncture last season.

Beyond Wolves, the trend of diminishing open play goals is predominantly observed among London clubs, with five of the city’s seven teams netting at least five goals fewer than the previous season. This decline, however, is largely attributed to an unusually high goal tally at the beginning of last season rather than a current struggle.

In contrast, Manchester City has experienced the most substantial increase, with all but one of their 23 goals this season originating from open play.

When analyzing promoted teams against the relegated clubs they replaced, play-off victors Sunderland have outperformed Southampton by scoring three more goals in open play during their first 11 matches.

In terms of goals from set-pieces (excluding penalties), Arsenal and Chelsea have seen the largest uptick, compensating for five fewer open play goals with an equal number achieved from dead-ball situations. Manchester United has doubled their set-piece goals compared to the first 11 matches last season before the management transition under Ruben Amorim, while Sunderland continues to show improvement compared to the team they replaced.

Interestingly, Manchester City appears to be bucking the trend, having scored three fewer set-piece goals than last season, a situation mirrored by Nottingham Forest, potentially due to a change in their playing style.

A summary table provides a detailed comparison of how each team has scored their goals so far in the Premier League against their performance in the first 11 matches of the previous season.

Six clubs—Arsenal, Chelsea, Fulham, Newcastle, Tottenham, and West Ham—have emerged as trendsetters this season, scoring fewer goals from open play and increasing their set-piece tallies. Conversely, Manchester City stands out as the only team to reverse this trend.

It will be intriguing to observe whether teams will continue to depend heavily on set-pieces as the season progresses or if they will regain their overall creativity and boost their open play goal count.