Analysis of Premier League Goal Trends: A Shift Towards Set-Pieces

Wolverhampton Wanderers have recorded a significant decline in goals scored from open play, netting ten fewer than at this point last season.

One of the most prominent narratives of the current Premier League season is the overall reduction in goals scored during open play. Instead, teams have increasingly relied on set-pieces for scoring. An analysis comparing the first eleven matches of this season to last reveals a total of 39 fewer goals scored from open play, while set-pieces and penalties saw an increase of 26, culminating in 13 fewer goals overall.

Examining the broader context, teams have taken 370 fewer shots from open play compared to the same stage last season. Despite the notable rise in goals from set-pieces, only two additional shots have been generated from these situations (excluding penalties), indicating the effectiveness of teams in capitalizing on dead-ball opportunities.

“I was once labeled a dinosaur, but it’s evident that few managers complain about set-pieces these days,” remarked a prominent figure in football management.

This season, 301 goals have been scored across 110 matches, averaging 2.74 goals per game. If this trend persists, it would mark the lowest average goals per game in five years, since the 2020-21 season (2.69). In terms of open play goals, only 196 have been scored, resulting in an average of 1.78 per game, which is on track to be the lowest since the 2009-10 season (1.76).

The 2009-10 season was also the only one in which non-penalty set-pieces accounted for a higher goal rate than the current season’s 0.77 per game (0.79).

So, which teams are driving this shift in goal-scoring trends? Wolves have experienced the most drastic reduction in open play goals, scoring merely four in their first eleven games—ten fewer than the same stage last season.

Beyond Wolves, the decline in open play goals seems predominantly linked to teams from London. Five of the seven London clubs have recorded at least five fewer goals from open play compared to the previous season. However, this trend is largely attributable to their previous high-scoring performances rather than a significant struggle to score in this campaign.

Conversely, Manchester City has exhibited the most substantial increase, with all but one of their 23 goals this season coming from open play.

Additionally, a comparison of promoted teams against the relegated sides they replaced shows Sunderland scoring three more open play goals than Southampton did during their first eleven games last season.

In terms of set-piece goals (excluding penalties), Arsenal and Chelsea have seen the most notable increases, offsetting the five fewer goals scored in open play by netting an equivalent amount from dead-ball situations. Similarly, Manchester United has doubled their set-piece scoring rate compared to last season’s first eleven games before the appointment of Ruben Amorim. Sunderland, again, outperformed the team they replaced in this regard.

Interestingly, Manchester City appears to be an outlier in this trend, having scored three fewer goals from set-pieces compared to last season, a trend shared by Nottingham Forest, potentially due to a shift in playing style.

In summary, six teams—Arsenal, Chelsea, Fulham, Newcastle, Tottenham, and West Ham—are leading the charge this season, scoring fewer goals from open play but more from set-pieces. In contrast, Manchester City is the only team to deviate from this pattern, having achieved the opposite results.

It remains to be seen whether teams will continue to depend heavily on set-pieces as the season progresses or if they will regain their creative flair and increase their scoring rate from open play.