Analyzing the Shift in Premier League Goal Scoring Trends

Wolves have scored 10 fewer goals from open play compared to the same stage last season.

One of the most notable developments in the Premier League this season is the marked decline in goals scored from open play, with an increase in scoring from set-pieces instead.

In comparing the first 11 matches of this season to the previous one, there have been 39 fewer goals scored from open play and 26 additional goals from team set-pieces and penalties. This results in an overall decrease of 13 goals.

Examining the broader context, teams have taken an astonishing 370 fewer shots from open play than at this point last season. Despite the rise in goals from set-pieces, only two additional shots have been generated from these situations outside of penalties, indicating teams’ increasing efficiency in converting dead-ball scenarios into scoring opportunities.

The 301 goals scored in 110 matches so far yield an average of 2.74 goals per game. If this trend continues, it would represent the lowest scoring average over a full season for five years, since 2020-21 (2.69). Of these, only 196 goals have been netted from open play, averaging 1.78 per game, which is on track to be the lowest figure in 16 years, since 2009-10 (1.76).

Notably, the 2009-10 season remains the only Premier League campaign in which non-penalty set-pieces were converted more frequently than this season’s rate of 0.77 per game (0.79).

Which teams are driving this significant shift in goal-scoring this season? Wolves have experienced the most drastic decline, netting a mere four goals from open play in 11 matches—10 fewer than at this point last season.

Beyond Wolves, the drop in open play goals appears to be prevalent among clubs in London, with five out of seven teams in the capital scoring at least five goals fewer than last season. This decline can largely be attributed to a prolific start for these teams last season, rather than a complete inability to score in open play this year.

Conversely, Manchester City has seen the most substantial increase, with 22 out of their 23 goals scored this season originating from open play.

A comparison between the promoted teams and the relegated ones they replaced shows that play-off winners Sunderland have netted three more goals from open play than Southampton did in their initial 11 games last season.

Regarding goals from set-pieces (excluding penalties), Arsenal and Chelsea have recorded the most significant increases, compensating for the five fewer goals scored in open play with an equal number from dead-ball scenarios.

Manchester United has doubled their set-piece goals compared to their total from the first 11 games last season prior to the arrival of Ruben Amorim, while Sunderland has also improved in this area compared to the red-and-white team they replaced.

Interestingly, Manchester City appears to have deviated from the trend of increasing set-piece scoring, registering three fewer goals from this source than last season, which may reflect a shift in their tactical approach.

A summary of goal-scoring methods for all teams in the Premier League thus far illustrates that six clubs—Arsenal, Chelsea, Fulham, Newcastle, Tottenham, and West Ham—are leading the trend of scoring fewer goals from open play while scoring more from set-pieces. In contrast, Manchester City stands out as the only team to diverge from this pattern.

As the season progresses, it will be intriguing to see whether teams continue to depend heavily on set-pieces or if they will rediscover their creativity and enhance their scoring from open play.