Apertura 2025 Liguilla: Play-In Showdowns Set the Stage for Upsets

The winners of the Xolos-Juárez and Pachuca-Pumas matchups will progress to face Tigres and the losing team from the former contest, respectively, to determine Toluca’s next opponent. On paper, both Play-In victors are expected to enter the Liguilla as underdogs against the two strongest teams of the season.

However, an intriguing factor comes into play. With Toluca and Tigres potentially facing a nearly three-week hiatus from competitive action, the teams emerging victorious from these midweek clashes could be sharper, fitter, and more in sync. This situation opens a narrow avenue for an upset.

Realistically, neither of the Play-In teams possesses the offensive might to match the two favorites, but Liga MX is known for its unpredictability. The last team to secure a postseason spot can ignite momentum overnight and eliminate a frontrunner early in the tournament.

Tijuana enters the play-in as a slight favorite due to their home-field advantage, despite both border teams exhibiting similar performances throughout the tournament. Xolos finished just one point ahead of FC Juárez, with each team recording six wins in the Apertura 2025. Neither team enters the match in peak form; Sebastián Abreu’s squad managed only one win in their last six matches, mirroring the struggles of Martín Varini’s side.

**Xolos – Key to Success:**
Tijuana boasts a stronger roster, a more potent attack, and a more reliable defense than FC Juárez. The strategy should remain unchanged at home: take an early lead and protect their goal. If Abreu can effectively neutralize Juárez’s attackers and penetrate their defensive setup, Xolos stand a solid chance of advancing. However, single-elimination games are often unpredictable, and Varini may opt for penalties if the match remains tight.

**Xolos – Player to Watch: Gilberto Mora**
The extent of Mora’s participation on Thursday remains uncertain due to his commitments with the Mexican national team, leaving his physical readiness in question. It is anticipated that the 17-year-old midfield talent could make an impact off the bench in the second half, as Javier Aguirre evaluates his potential contribution to El Tri.

**FC Juárez – Key to Success:**
Juárez must disrupt Tijuana’s rhythm and ensure they remain uncomfortable throughout the match. Acknowledging the challenge of playing on artificial turf, Varini’s squad must focus on maintaining a clean sheet, compelling Xolos to push higher up the pitch, and seizing opportunities in transition.

**FC Juárez – Player to Watch: Óscar Estupiñán**
The striker concluded the tournament with eight goals in just 13 appearances, establishing himself as Juárez’s primary attacking threat. If FC Juárez aims to make an impact, Estupiñán must deliver a standout performance.

**GOAL Pick:**
Xolos will secure a 2–0 victory and earn their position as the seventh team in the Liguilla.

The matchup between Pachuca and Pumas is anticipated to attract more attention than the Xolos vs. FC Juárez game. The Tuzos, who will host on Thursday due to their superior finish in the standings, made a significant change by replacing former Mexico national team coach Jaime Lozano with Esteban Solari, specifically to navigate this play-in. Conversely, Pumas’ manager Efraín Juárez is under pressure, with speculation surrounding his job security. Although Pumas kept their postseason aspirations alive with a crucial win against Cruz Azul in the final week, a loss on Thursday could jeopardize his future with the team.

**Pachuca – Key to Success:**
Pachuca must swiftly adapt to Esteban Solari’s tactics. The new coach has already conducted a tune-up match to assess his team, but they concluded the tournament with a five-game winless streak—a slump that ultimately led to Lozano’s dismissal. The Tuzos arrive in shaky form, hoping the managerial change can revitalize their performance.

**Pachuca – Player to Watch: Enner Valencia**
Despite struggling this semester with just three goals in nine matches, the Ecuadorian striker remains a veteran capable of thriving in knockout scenarios. Solari relies on him to spearhead the attack in a do-or-die match.

**Pumas – Key to Success:**
Juárez must maintain composure and navigate Pumas to a challenging win at Estadio Hidalgo, relying on the grit and resilience that have sustained their season thus far. The Azul y Oro scored seven goals in their last two matches, so sustaining that attacking momentum will be crucial to troubling the home side. They will miss José Juan Macías due to a knee injury that sidelines him until next year.

**Pumas – Players to Watch: Jorge Ruvalcaba and Keylor Navas**
Both players have been pivotal in Pumas’ campaign. Ruvalcaba earned a call-up to the Mexican national team after scoring five goals during Apertura 2025, although his availability remains uncertain. The club hopes to reintegrate him promptly once El Tri concludes its camp. Navas, currently on international duty with Costa Rica, is expected to return in time for the match, given his position as a goalkeeper.

**GOAL Pick:**
Pumas are likely to advance, either by a narrow margin or through a penalty shootout.

The highly anticipated Apertura 2025 Liguilla is set to commence next Wednesday and Thursday, promising one of the most thrilling editions in recent memory. With Ángel Correa leading Tigres, Sergio Ramos anchoring Monterrey, and América showcasing stars like Alejandro Zendejas and Allan Saint-Maximin, the playoff roster brims with talent. Cruz Azul, under Nicolás Larcamón, emerges as a serious contender, while Toluca—guided by Antonio Mohamed—enters as the defending champions after finishing the regular season atop the table, propelled by Paulinho’s third consecutive scoring title.

Ultimately, only one team will claim the trophy in a tournament characterized by substantial investment and elevated expectations. Chivas, revitalized under Gabriel Milito, aim to carry their impressive form into the playoffs and eliminate Cruz Azul from contention. However, the complete list of eight playoff participants will not be finalized until the weekend, as the Play-In victor seeks to deliver a shocking upset.