Champions League Countdown: Bundesliga Teams’ Paths to Knockout Phase

With only two matchdays remaining in the Champions League, the competition is intensifying for teams aiming to secure a place in the knockout stage. For Bundesliga clubs, certain teams have the potential to clinch their spots this week, while others may require maximum points, favorable outcomes in other matches, and the possibility of succeeding in a playoff round.

To clarify, from the 36 teams in the league phase, the top eight automatically qualify for the knockout rounds, while those finishing between ninth and twenty-fourth will compete in a playoff to advance.

Here’s a breakdown of what each Bundesliga team needs to qualify for the next round of this season’s Champions League.

Unsurprisingly, Bayern Munich is performing the best among Bundesliga teams, currently sitting in second place with 15 points.

In their upcoming match against Belgian side Union SG at home on Wednesday, Vincent Kompany’s team could secure their qualification with a game to spare. This outcome, however, is contingent on results in other matches; still, even if they remain three points clear in the top eight with one game left, their superior goal difference should suffice regardless of the final matchday results.

An unusual atmosphere is expected at the Allianz Arena on Wednesday, as UEFA has imposed a €50,000 fine on Bayern Munich and partially banned the renowned Südkurve for their next Champions League match. This sanction follows the repeated use of pyrotechnics in the stand, which is prohibited for safety reasons in UEFA competitions.

The specific ban on blocks 111 to 114 presents a logistical challenge for the club. Since the lower tier of the Südkurve does not utilize block-by-block ticketing, all tickets are valid or invalid. Consequently, the ban affects all 9,336 tickets for the lower stand. As a result, the club has opted to cancel all tickets for the Südkurve and will refund purchasers accordingly.

Borussia Dortmund faces a challenging trip to Tottenham Hotspur on Tuesday evening, as they meet a struggling side in the Premier League—something that Niko Kovac’s team hopes to capitalize on.

Currently ranked tenth, Dortmund is just one point shy of automatic qualification positions. Complicating matters, Spurs sit close behind in eleventh place. A victory at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium would significantly enhance Dortmund’s chances of finishing in the top eight, though it would not guarantee it. Their concluding match in the league phase is a tough home fixture against Inter Milan, who may secure qualification with a win this week. If Dortmund performs well in London, they will host a solid Inter side on the final day, though Inter will have already qualified and may not be playing for anything.

While Niko Kovac will be without Marcel Sabitzer, there is some positive news as Ramy Bensebaini—who recently participated in the Africa Cup of Nations—and Aaron Anselmino—who missed the Bundesliga win against St. Pauli—have both returned to training and traveled with the squad. Julien Duranville is also in the lineup despite his impending move to Basel. Aside from Sabitzer’s absence, Kovac has a fully fit squad, and he will need his best players to secure two wins from their last two fixtures to guarantee a top-eight finish, otherwise, they will enter the playoff round.

Bayer Leverkusen, currently sixth in the Bundesliga and struggling domestically, look to their European campaign as a potential lifeline.

Kasper Hjulmand’s side travels to Greece to face Olympiacos on Tuesday night. Currently languishing in twentieth place with just nine points, it appears Die Werkself may have to settle for a playoff position. Even winning their final two matches may not suffice for a top-eight finish.

Visiting Olympiacos can be notoriously challenging. The Greek champions are also desperate for a playoff spot, sitting on five points with only one win; they must triumph over Leverkusen to keep their hopes alive.

A victory for Leverkusen could ensure a playoff position this week, or they may only require a draw in their final match against Villarreal.

Eintracht Frankfurt has recently fallen into turmoil, leading to the sacking of head coach Dino Toppmöller.

Positioned thirtieth in the Champions League league phase, the Eagles require two victories from their remaining matches to have any hope. Even then, they will need to monitor results in other games to secure a playoff spot.

Frankfurt is set to face Qarabag in Azerbaijan on Wednesday night. While they are favored to win, the long travel distance could complicate the match.

A victory against Qarabag would elevate Frankfurt to seven points, potentially placing them within reach of a playoff spot—if not, they would be close. On the final matchday, the Eagles will host Spurs in Germany’s financial hub. By then, they could potentially welcome a new head coach, as reports suggest that Eintracht Frankfurt is targeting Marco Rose for the position following Toppmöller’s dismissal. Rose is open to taking the role, having been without a position since his departure from Leipzig last March.