San Marino’s Unlikely Path to the 2026 FIFA World Cup

Among the teams competing for one of the 48 spots in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, San Marino stands out as the lowest-ranked, holding the 210th position in FIFA’s men’s world rankings.

With a modest population exceeding 34,000, San Marino is the fifth-smallest recognized country globally. Situated within Italy, it is often overshadowed by its smaller counterpart, Vatican City, which lacks a FIFA-recognized national team. In its pursuit of a World Cup berth next summer in North America, San Marino has faced significant challenges, losing all seven of its qualifying matches to date, scoring only one goal while conceding 32.

Despite these disheartening statistics, hope is not entirely lost for San Marino’s World Cup aspirations. However, a very specific series of events must unfold for the team to qualify, potentially culminating in a scenario where San Marino would have to lose its final qualifying match by the largest margin possible.

The European qualifying system allocates 16 of the 48 World Cup spots. The qualifying campaign concludes on November 18, with the winners of the 12 groups automatically securing their places. The 12 second-place teams will then advance to a playoff for the remaining four UEFA spots.

Complicating matters, the last four playoff spots are designated for the top-ranked teams that won one of the 14 UEFA Nations League groups in 2024. Remarkably, San Marino emerged victorious in its Nations League group for the 2024-25 season, securing two wins against Liechtenstein and a draw against Gibraltar.

Currently ranked 14th among these Nations League winners, San Marino requires at least 10 of the 13 higher-ranked teams to qualify directly for the World Cup or secure playoff spots, allowing them to claim one of the playoff positions.

As the final week of qualifying approaches, eight teams that might have been eligible for Nations League bids have already qualified, simplifying San Marino’s path to potentially needing just two others to finish second in their groups.

If Northern Ireland, a Nations League group winner, can defeat Slovakia in their qualifier, they would position themselves favorably for a second-place finish in their group. Likewise, if Romania, another Nations League winner, beats Bosnia and Herzegovina, they will tie for second in a group that includes San Marino.

Should these outcomes align, San Marino would then face Romania on November 18 with the peculiar incentive to lose by as wide a margin as possible, enabling Romania to advance through the traditional qualifying process while relinquishing their playoff spot to San Marino.

This complex scenario draws parallels to the infamous “Disgrace of Gijón” during the 1982 World Cup, which prompted FIFA to implement regulations mandating that all final group stage matches occur simultaneously to prevent collusion.

If San Marino does find itself in a position where losing is advantageous, questions arise regarding how sportsbooks would set odds for such a match.

Currently, World Cup qualifying betting activity is relatively subdued compared to mainstream leagues like the Premier League, as noted by BetMGM soccer trader Tom Pullin. San Marino’s matches, while predictable in outcome, typically draw little attention from bookmakers, evidenced by their odds against Cyprus and Austria.

On November 18, if the extraordinary happens and San Marino must aim to lose significantly, sportsbooks would likely adjust Romania’s odds to reflect this unusual incentive. Pullin indicated that they would approach pricing differently for such a scenario, using market trends to determine appropriate odds in light of the anticipated goal-scoring opportunities.

However, for this situation to materialize, Northern Ireland must defeat Slovakia, and Romania must overcome Bosnia and Herzegovina, creating a potential parlay of +1069 odds.

Bickerdike from Caesars Sportsbook remarked that the industry awaits the outcome of the Bosnia-Romania match before setting prices for the Romania-San Marino game, anticipating an extraordinary situation if it unfolds.

Ultimately, while FIFA prohibits teams from purposely losing matches, the extraordinary circumstances surrounding San Marino’s World Cup qualifying journey raise profound questions about sportsmanship and the nature of competitive play.