San Marino’s Unlikely Path to the 2026 FIFA World Cup

Among the teams contending for one of the 48 slots in the expanded 2026 FIFA World Cup, San Marino ranks at the bottom, sitting 210th out of 210 eligible teams in FIFA’s men’s world rankings.

With a population of just over 34,000, San Marino is the fifth-smallest recognized country in the world, overshadowed by its more famous neighbor, Vatican City, which lacks a FIFA-recognized soccer team. In their pursuit of a place in the World Cup next summer, San Marino has lost all seven of their qualifying matches, scoring only one goal and conceding 32.

Despite their poor performance, hope is not entirely lost for San Marino to compete in the World Cup. Achieving this, however, would require a very specific series of events, potentially culminating in a scenario where San Marino would need to lose their final qualifying match by the largest margin possible.

European teams are allocated 16 of the 48 World Cup spots. After a lengthy round-robin qualifying process concluding on November 18, the top team from each of the 12 groups secures an automatic bid, while the 12 runners-up advance to a 16-team playoff for the remaining UEFA spots.

The final four spots in this playoff are reserved for the highest-ranked teams that won one of the 14 UEFA Nations League groups in 2024. Interestingly, San Marino emerged victorious in their group during the 2024-25 season, achieving two wins over Liechtenstein and securing a draw against Gibraltar.

However, San Marino currently ranks 14th out of the 14 Nations League team winners. For them to claim one of the four playoff spots, ten of the thirteen teams ranked above them must not need a playoff bid—meaning they either qualify directly or already secure a playoff spot.

As the final week of qualifying matches approaches, eight potential Nations League contenders have already qualified for the World Cup, reducing San Marino’s hopes to relying on just two other countries to finish in second place in their respective groups.

A pivotal moment could occur if Northern Ireland, a Nations League group winner, defeats Slovakia in their World Cup qualifier, positioning them strongly for second place. Similarly, if Romania, another Nations League winner, beats Bosnia and Herzegovina, they will also be tied for second in their qualifying group, which includes San Marino.

Should these events unfold, San Marino would be incentivized to lose to Romania on November 18 by the largest margin possible, facilitating Romania’s advancement while allowing San Marino to take a spot in the Nations League playoff.

This complicated scenario echoes past controversies, such as the “Disgrace of Gijón” during the 1982 World Cup, when West Germany and Austria’s collusion led to Algeria’s elimination, prompting FIFA to mandate that all final group stage matches be played simultaneously.

If San Marino finds itself in a position where losing is beneficial, it raises questions about how sportsbooks would set betting lines for the match. Generally, World Cup qualifying is not a major betting draw, especially when compared to league football like the Premier League. San Marino’s matches are often overlooked unless they face a prominent opponent.

In previous qualifiers, San Marino’s chances have been rated extremely low, with odds of +1300 against Cyprus and an astounding 100-1 against Austria. Consequently, most high-stakes bettors have consistently favored their opponents. However, there remains a niche market for underdog stories.

If the described scenario materializes, sportsbooks would likely set Romania’s odds as short as possible, possibly not listing a money line at all, provided San Marino is incentivized to lose.

To set this unique situation into motion, Northern Ireland must upset Slovakia, and Romania must defeat Bosnia, yielding parlay odds of +1069.

As the situation develops, sportsbooks are awaiting the outcome of the Bosnia-Romania match before releasing odds for the San Marino-Romania encounter. If the extraordinary occurs and San Marino finds themselves with an opportunity to advance by losing significantly, it presents a moral quandary, as FIFA rules prohibit teams from deliberately losing matches. Yet, given San Marino’s historical performance, it may be challenging to definitively prove any wrongdoing.