VfL Wolfsburg: Navigating Challenges and Future Prospects in the Bundesliga

The latest installment in our series of Bundesliga transfer analyses here at Get German Football News focuses on VfL Wolfsburg. Similar to Hoffenheim, the team has successfully navigated an administrative crisis to regain stability. The appointment of Pirmin Schwegler, a former Bayern scout and Eintracht Frankfurt sporting executive, is a significant development for the club. Newly appointed head coach Daniel Bauer appears to have earned the backing of the squad.

However, the Lower Saxon “Autostädter” still face a familiar set of challenges. Since the onset of their European drought nearly four years ago, the squad has been poorly balanced. Bauer’s attempts to establish a straightforward and consistent tactical system—being the first Wolfsburg coach since Oliver Glasner to field the same starting XI in three consecutive matches—have shown some promise. Nonetheless, the failure of Bauer’s 4-2-3-1 formation against SC Freiburg exposed the inherent weaknesses within the team’s tactical structure.

Maintaining interest among fans has been a struggle for many Germans when it comes to Wolfsburg. This is unfortunate, especially considering the intriguing direction the team may take in the upcoming year. Will they find themselves embroiled in the relegation battle, or might they emerge as contenders for the Conference League playoff spot? Predicting their trajectory remains a challenge. Despite some foundational improvements, I anticipate Bauer will not steer the team back to European competition anytime soon.

As for their current standing, the predicted table position was 13th, while their actual position is 14th with 15 points (4 Wins, 3 Draws, 8 Losses, -5 Goal Difference). Wolfsburg’s goal differential indicates they often stayed competitive until the final moments of matches. October’s losses to VfB Stuttgart and Holstein Kiel left a sense that something positive was developing within the team, especially following an undeserved victory against Hamburger SV.

Recent victories against Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach, however, were well-earned. The attack functioned effectively on both flanks, with Aaron Zehnter and Patrick Wimmer on the left, complemented by new permanent signing Saël Kumbedi and the previously criticized Christian Eriksen on the right. Eriksen’s resurgence has been crucial, transforming his earlier reputation from that of the season’s biggest transfer flop, much to the relief of Danish managing director Peter Christiansen.

The estimated summer transfer balance shows a deficit of -€10.5m. Our earlier analysis covered Bayer 04 Leverkusen, which enjoys financial security thanks to its backing from a major global pharmaceutical conglomerate. Wolfsburg, however, faces a different reality. The financial constraints of Volkswagen are evident, as seen when Christiansen could not afford top dollar for notable targets like Josh Sargent.

Several late transfer attempts fell through as other clubs sought to take advantage of Wolfsburg’s situation, leading to loans for players such as Kumbedi, Jenson Seelt, Jesper Lindstrøm, and Adam Daghim. Christiansen had to pay loan fees for three of these players, demonstrating the club’s financial limitations.

Eriksen and Kumbedi’s performances have somewhat mitigated the earlier failures of the summer transfer window, but the squad still features several underperforming signings. For instance, Daghim’s promising start was marred by a sharp decline and injury, while Lindstrøm has barely featured due to chronic issues. The management’s decision to pursue players with recent injury histories raises questions about their recruitment strategy.

While Seelt and Zehnter have proven to be good acquisitions, the handling of the David Odogu situation leaves much to be desired. Allowing promising attackers like Tiago Tomas, Vaclav Cerny, and Jakub Kaminski to leave was another misstep. The signing of Vinicius Souza for €15m, despite having plenty of defensive midoptions already, appears misguided. Attempts to convert Souza into an attacking player have not yielded results, creating a tactical conundrum.

The club could benefit from moving on players like Moritz Jenz and Mathys Angely, with potential developmental loans in mind. Following a long injury list, including Denis Vavro’s setback, the club was fortunate that Kilian Fischer’s injury opened opportunities for Kumbedi and Eriksen.

Yannick Gerhardt’s return could lead to a contract extension, as he and Maximilian Arnold were expected to form a solid midfield partnership. However, Arnold’s presence limits Souza’s role, prompting speculation about selling the former Sheffield United player. The ongoing saga of Jonas Wind’s potential departure continues to frustrate, with reporters expressing fatigue over the speculation.

The club currently faces several expiring contracts: Pavao Pervan (GK), Kevin Paredes (LM), Yannick Gerhardt (CM), and Jonas Wind (CF). The rumor mill has been relatively quiet, especially following the exit of Niclas Füllkrug from transfer considerations. Current links to Scottish midfielder Josh Mulligan seem credible, yet acquiring another midfielder is the last thing the team needs. The front office would be wise to refrain from further destabilizing the roster.

Further needs include positions such as LB, CB, RB, RM, ATTM, RW, and CF, with rumored transfer interests in players like Josh Mulligan (RM), Alessandro Vogt (CF), Younes Ebnoutalib (CF), and Mathys Detourbet (CF).

In summary, while VfL Wolfsburg is making strides in addressing their internal challenges, significant questions remain regarding their squad composition, transfer strategies, and overall trajectory.